Covidiocy
TheStickler, thus far, has felt it impertinent and inappropriate to comment on the Covid-19 crisis, but maybe there are some points to be made which do not appear to be out there as yet…
1. Density. The UK has a density of population that is roughly double that of France with approximately the same number of inhabitants. In other words us Brits are, roughly speaking, bunched together at twice the density of the average French person. Now let’s discuss “R value” in that context. This is the rate of cross infection, and the whole idea of “SH,PTN,SL” is to try to achieve, and maintain, R < 1. People bemoaning the fact that the French death stats cannot be compared with the UK’s are missing a far more important point than whether the care home stats (and the rest of the UK’s deaths outside of NHS hospitals) have been omitted from our numbers. What is the point of persistently asking the Politico of the Day the same question, only to get the same answer? But more importantly, why is said Politician not briefed with a response such as this? For those with a mathematical bent, surely if density is doubled then achieving an R < 1 result requires twice as much effort, but the moment it goes above 1, the effects in the UK will be squared compared to those in France. So actually, you know what? We’re doing OK. Sure there are idiots ignoring the advice, but the sums were done on 50% compliance (our sensible scientists were pessimistic) and we are probably, as a nation, doing rather better than that too.
Here’s the text from a meme doing the rounds that sums things up:
Q: What does the spread of Coronavirus depend upon?
A: The density of the population, and the density of the population.
Precisely.
2. PPE. It’s completely pointless to bang on about how many “pieces of PPE” are being shifted, by whatever means, without correlating this to the demand. For each patient tested positive (or suspected positive) in NHS hospitals for Covid-19, each interaction with that patient requires the appropriate PPE. The advice on what this is has evolved as this has progressed, but the important distinction remains that any situation in which Covid-19 is likely to be in aerosol form (ITU being the prime example, but there are others) requires more stringent precautions than elsewhere, but every encounter with a positive, or suspected positive, patient requires at least the basic PPE. Per encounter. And then it must be discarded, either for disposal or carefully controlled rigorous washing. So here’s a question for the daily briefing. How many healthcare workers are involved in NHS hospitals and what is the average number of encounters each has with patients per day. Obviously they won’t know the answer, so invite them to come back it the next day. Then ask how many items of PPE are required, per person, to complete their kit (eg mask, goggles, hair net, gloves, apron, etc. etc.). Take the “7 million items of PPE distributed” and divide by all three numbers. Now ask about care homes, GP surgeries, other key workers etc. etc. Context is everything. Lame questions are a waste of time.
3. Banks. Back in the day (a while back now!) the government had a “small firms loan guarantee scheme” aimed at helping small businesses get funds from their high street banks. From memory I think HMG underwrote 80% of any agreed loan value, so as to encourage the banks to lend. Over the course of this ill-fated project, take up was far far lower than the Treasury anticipated. Why? Because the banks simply did their risk assessment based on the remaining 20% for which they remained liable, and turned people down and or introduced more hoops (personal guarantees etc.) that put people off. It seems that The Treasury has not learned. Most small business owners TheStickler has spoken to are reporting that much the same is happening again. It’s all very well making funds available, but they are not reaching their intended target. Fraud prevention is of course necessary, but HMG need to up the 80% to 100% immediately (as is the case in several other countries already) and or remove most of the high street banks from the equation. Fortunately TheStickler believes that HMG still owns 62.4% of RBS, so why not force RBS to get with the program, underwrite 100% and channel all this funding through their in-house bank? The other banks lose out – diddums – it’s clearly time they were yet again reminded to put public service before profits, especially in times like these.
More will follow…
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