Between a Rock and a hard Brexit

So tonight any vote based on the current proposals looks likely to be lost by 80 votes or so, a huge number to turn around in just a few days and so either this vote won’t happen, or it will be lost. If the latter, then St Theresa must surely be finished – she’s made this deal so personal. If the former then what? Sometime between now and the end of March there has to be some sort of vote or “exit with no deal” (hard Brexit) ensues. Again this is pretty much an inevitable resignation issue given the history of pledges and even the floored (sic) Chequers deal. John Redwood summed things up perfectly this evening on BBC R4 when he described the present Withdrawal Agreement as “Chequers minus”.

So who set up the Spanish? Sánchez has been in post for about 3 minutes (OK pedants, just over 5 months) and has pulled the corker – after presenting an utterly united front throughout all the the negotiations and grandstanding the new Man in Madrid takes to the twittersphere from Cuba (and in so doing injects the dual concepts of “crisis” and “rogue state” rather less than subliminally into the equation – clever boy) and insists on new terms for “The Rock”.  But please don’t think this wasn’t artfully plotted to provide a necessary breathing space. Sunday will produce another confection: take one solid base (the EU’s demands), add a layer of fudge (the non-binding declarations of intent) and wrap it in a layer of sweetness (the sugar-coating designed to help our PM slide this past her own backbenchers and the country). But will anyone swallow this now? Whatever cream is added to the mix it will still fail to to be whipped into a majority.

TheStickler still believes the stage is being set for the “this deal is so bad we’d be better off remaining” option and a second referendum, and that will require a fresh stooge at the top to implement, because St Theresa has ruled it out so many times that not even she, and all her spin doctors, can get away with such a blatant volte face.

So here’s the addendum to the original post which called this from the start. Everything will play out as described, the powers behind the throne have been quietly orchestrating this all along. The will of the people will be the excuse to stop the pernicious no deal Brexit in its tracks, the threat of a vassal state will have done its work, and the new PM will “reluctantly” cede to popular demand, and those of the majority in Parliament, and the “People’s Vote” will swiftly deliver its verdict: Remain.

Boris will never be heard of again, except in passing references to the huge fees (even by retired Ministerial standards) he now commands on the lucrative lecture circuit. The Tory party will remain riven.

Raab may indeed be on a walking tour, but his cell phone is switched on, and his batteries are recharging with every step…

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