Come What May?

Back in 2016 TheStickler predicted that the outcome of this whole sorry mess would be a realisation that Brexit on the terms available from the EU would be such a disaster that remaining in the EU is the only practicable solution.

This doesn’t need a Peoples’ Vote. The arguments about re-running the Referendum until the answer suits Parliament are correct. The Government is elected to govern, not to shift the responsibility on to the electorate, or the back benchers of the Tory party, or possibly even Parliament. But Parliament are quite right take control when matters fall into such disarray as this. But quite wrong to seek to change the outcome. The majority of MPs have been in favour of Remain all along, and this has provoked a constitutional crisis where the collective will of Parliament is at odds with the expressed desire of the (small) majority of the electorate.

If only the Referendum had been constructed so as to required a significant majority decision in order to effect any change. There would have been cries of outrage here too, but if we contrast that kerfuffle with the fuss about the People’s Vote and every other demand to rerun things until the answer was “Remain” we could then discuss the lesser of two evils with some realism.

Suppose this threshold had been 60%. A vote of 52% would have signalled to the EU that there were a lot of disaffected people in the UK. Couple this with all four nations in the UK getting more involved with the EU, not less so, and influencing and making changes from within. No threat to the Union, no “uncertainty”, and a message to other nations also muttering about some of the inane Eurocracy that they had a powerful ally on the inside track. Would this not have been preferable to where we find ourselves now.

But we are where we are, and no-one thought to require such a threshold.

At the outset “No deal” could have been an option, had we adopted this negotiating position from day one, the day after the Referendum result was declared. Then the “certainty” would have been present. But now, at fourteen weeks out, there’s no time left for anything other than a likely disaster on many fronts should “No deal” be the outcome.

What’s been missing throughout this whole process is the impression of strong leadership, and while it’s quite likely that behind the scenes things have been more assertive and effective than has been portrayed, Saint Theresa really only has herself, her “red lines” and her appointed team to blame for this. The fact that we’re on Brexit “Secretary” (but actually powerless) number three and the last two are now openly critical tells us what was really going on.

Of course La Theresa was never really for this from the start. Although careful to hedge her bets in the run up to the Referendum, it’s evident that our illustrious leader is a Remainer at heart. TheStickler is impressed that she’s still sticking to her guns; “The Country voted for Brexit and that’s what I will deliver” etc. etc. but there comes a time when clinging on to a lemming as it hurls itself to its death must be considered injudicious.

So yes there will be some sort of vote. Whether to replace our leader, or to remain in the EU, or to reject the “Withdrawal Agreement” or even more than one of these.

Who will put themselves forward for the poisoned chalice? It’s hardly surprising that Graham Brady didn’t get his 48 letters… any worthwhile candidate must be feverishly contacting his fan base and insisting “Not now, not now for god’s sake” as next incumbent must surely be seen as “transitional” too… and when the EU music stops and the backstop begins there’ll be more “shock horreur” and another round of voting. And so it will continue…

TheStickler is humming the closing verse of “Hotel California” to himself as he writes…

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