May: The Farce Be With You

It’s a tad late in the day for this advice, but in the absence of any other credible alternative (i.e. one that might actually make it through Parliament and on to the Statute Book), here goes…

Europe also has much to lose if there is no deal done. But they’ve demonstrated superior, and far more intelligent, negotiating skills since Article 50 was triggered (and indeed before) and we are deservedly in a complete mess.

La PM’s red lines are correct. Without these being met she’s quite right to state that any deal will not meet the expectations of the small majority who voted “Leave”. But her “skill” in presenting them is lamentable, and has brought us to this point. It also completely fails to reflect the fact that this was a narrow victory for “Leave” and that’s what’s riven the country since. What idiot didn’t think to set some sort of threshold to ensure the status quo if there was a close result? Jog on! Perhaps a 60/40 majority? Enough to signal a real win, and ensure that whoever lost really did have to accept the outcome, and not what’s happened here where Parliament actually thinks, and on the present showing actually can, frustrate the process because it didn’t like the result. Now they’re sidetracked trying to ensure Bercow doesn’t get his peerage when he steps down later this year. Well that’s a really good way to tie up government resources and time as the clock ticks down towards 29th March.

Once the Referendum result was declared and the implications had sunk in, our not-so-illustrious leader should have contacted Brussels and simply informed them that the UK was, as per the will of its electorate, leaving the EU. Oh and no need for that disastrous election which stripped her of what little power she had before the process really got underway. Instead she should have invited the EU to make some proposals if they wanted a deal, which would need to meet the following criteria – insert those “red lines” here – and that in the absence of such proposals, say after 3 months for example, the UK would trigger Article 50, assume it was proceeding with WTO rules, would immediately open talks on trade deals with the rest of the world and leave the EU without a deal 2yrs later to the day. No ifs, no buts. “But Gentlemen, do come and talk to us when you’re ready…”

TheStickler reckons the EU might have prevaricated for a week or two, but then they would have come to London ready to haggle… and what a different set of talks these would have been. The same issues would have arisen of course, but pragmatism to “do a deal” of some sort would have ruled the day. For example, start with a “no deal” exit in which the UK undertakes to maintain the same standards and conventions for a reasonable transition period so as to assure alignment and preservation of common interests – transport, security, expertise etc. That would have been simple enough. (It’s also almost exactly what lies at the heart of the present “Withdrawal” document, which is thick on fudge and thin on content). At the first mention of a customs border in the Irish Sea the EU delegation would have been sent packing, and told to come back when they were ready to be sensible! Or maybe be invited to hand over Holland to us which would be about as unrealistic. Mind you the Dutch are none too keen on their EU membership either, so hell’s teeth, what would happen if they agreed!!!

Sadly La PM now has only herself to blame for this absolute train crash. If she doesn’t stand aside and allow a Hard Brexiteer to take over and attempt to salvage this mess then nothing will change, and if she stands up again anywhere near a microphone and tells us that her deal delivers on Brexit when evidently it does nothing of the sort I think the nation will collectively scream.

Alternatively, she can tell the electorate that the best deal on offer is so awful that we would be far better off staying put and cancel the whole bloody business (see previous post). That’s the route to an eventual People’s Vote of course, and if/when that returns another “Leave” outcome then we start the whole damn shebang again at some point in the future. Oh dear Lord… But at least we’d know how not to “negotiate” next time.

But what she cannot do is pretend to listen, fiddle with a few details (rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic comes to mind), and waste more time until another vote on 29th January condemns the next version too. Please, enough. You failed. Fall on your handbag.

TheStickler appreciates that there’s little appetite to inherit the poisoned chalice, but frankly anyone (with perhaps the notable exception of the Member for North Islington) would now do a better job, and more importantly, provide at least the appearance of a fresh look at things. It is undoubtably too late to seriously go for “no deal” now, and that’s only being left in play as an empty threat to try and make the EU renegotiate. But they’ve had our national cojones in a vice for 2yrs now, and they’re loving it. They’re as unlikely to back down as Saint Theresa. Impasse.

But with a fresh hand on the helm, perhaps that would provide the necessary excuse for one side or the other to blink, and resume discussions. Both sides want a deal. Both sides now need a deal. So a deal is capable of being done.

Resign!

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