A Brexit Economics Primer, take two…

So since last Friday when “war” was officially declared, TheStickler has been listening to the pundits and the politicians strutting their stuff…

Making frequent, farcical and seemingly infantile attempts to strike terror into the hearts of anyone contemplating a “Leave” vote is clearly the plan of the “Remain” campaign, aka The Government – which neatly overlooks and marginalises those Ministers (and others in the corridors of power) who favour exit. No spin there then.

This morning it was Osborne’s turn on Radio 4. His interview was artfully preceded by a “shock, new” Treasury report which concluded that we, that is “UKplc”, would be 6% smaller if we left the EU. And they say the BBC has no bias? Or indeed interest in toadying up to whoever is Culture Secretary next week and might preserve their licence fee a while longer?

So why this obsession with turnover? It’s profit that matters surely? Is it just a coincidence that the only organisations who value our individual or business turnover far more than our profit are the banks – who simply harness whatever funds we have on deposit for their own interests, and don’t need to care how we’re actually doing.

If UKplc is 6% smaller then it has to work its money a little harder to show similar (or greater) profits, but isn’t that exactly the point? We’d be free from EU federalist and nanny-state constraints, no longer locked into one rather dodgy and bureaucratic European trading zone but free to interact with the whole world on terms that we can, whatever the scaremongers are saying to the contrary, set for ourselves. Sure, we’ll have to negotiate those terms, but since we have a huge market for buying stuff in, and also a huge range of products and services to sell to others, such negotiations will take place. Many are of course already in place. The only area where we’ll have to tread lightly will be in renegotiating our position with the EU. There’ll be sour grapes, but commerce will win out, because the lesson of history shows us that it always does.

Surely a freedom to take our own decisions, reset the City of London as the financial powerhouse that’s outside European law (and interventionism), and enjoy free trade with the world, will more than compensate for any downturn in overall GDP, or whatever measure is chosen next by the doom-sayers. And then there’s that dodgy 6% number itself. It turns out that this might have been a tad sexed up too. There are several indices of economic performance in the Treasury’s model. The first, and arguably more plausible, has a reduction of not 6%, but just 1.5-3%. But that’s not a large enough number, so the second more scary 6% number comes out by assuming that Britain will be in exactly that same position as Canada in terms of how we trade with the EU post Brexit. Really? Compare the trade figures, per capita or even outright, and the total nonsense of this is surely evident?

But what’s bothering TheStickler most is this. Where is the calm, reasoned opposition to the fear offensive being well orchestrated by the Remainers? Apparently we’ll have Gove on R4 tomorrow morning. Let’s hope the fight back gets more serious. There was a short clip from Redwood this morning in which he talked sense, but regrettably the guy has been largely political dead meat ever since his run in with The Iron Lady. It’s quite easy to counter Project Fear, but it does need to be done. Assuming that the British people will read between the lines and separate hype from fact and spot the seemingly endless misuse of statistics will not suffice. The majority are probably far more concerned with the relegation of ‘Villa. Boris bunked the job the other day, heckled into looking rather wet in fact. He needs to raise his game. But facts and numbers have never really been Boris’ strong point – unless an inner-ear monitor is feeding them to him in real time as he speaks. Gove and IDS on the other hand are good with facts. So get them out there. Don’t fight fear with smear. Hard facts. Counter arguments, and expose the holes in the Remain camp’s “arguments”. Just over two months to go and the side that can muster authority and dare I even suggest gravitas will be the one to attract those who’ve yet to make up their minds. And by all accounts, there are more than enough of them to make this race wide open…

So please. More facts. More on the issues. Less spin. Fewer flawed statistics. Let’s hear exactly how Britain might stand and fare in a non-member scenario, because we already know what being in the EU is all about, and while some can be applauded, there are major disadvantages as well. And as for Cameron’s fantastic achievements a couple of months back? Notice how everyone is still talking about that. What do you mean, there’s nothing to talk about? You cynic!

Views: 29